Why West Ham Will Go Down

West Ham United have just experienced their best season of the Premier League era, with 65 points and a 6th-placed finish ahead of London rivals Tottenham and Arsenal securing a place in the Europa League group stages. Fans can now look forward to a first proper European adventure this century, not including qualifier defeats to Palermo and Romanian minnows Astra Giurgiu. But if these supporters were to take a look beneath the surface of this European haze, the cracks already starting to appear in David Moyes' squad are alarming to say the least, hence why they are my early shout to be relegated from the Premier League in the 2021/22 season.

It would certainly be a fall from grace to tumble from 6th to the bottom three in the space of 12 months, but West Ham fans must remember that it is securing European football, not the usual bottom-half finish, that is the anomaly, and that a return to battling relegation would not be quite as big a shock as initially perceived. That being said, recent history dictates that at least 1 and likely 2 of the newly-promoted teams will go straight back down, so if Norwich, Watford and Brentford hold up their end of the bargain, there may only be 1 remaining spot for the rest of the division to try and avoid, helping the Hammers' chances even if they do decline rapidly. So why do I still think they will go down?

The most obvious reason is the absence of any notable signings, which alongside a number of established players being offloaded raises concerns over the club's ambition to remain in the top half of the league. West Ham fans are no strangers to feeling short-changed by their intensely unpopular owners David Gold and David Sullivan, but the board appear to have reached new lows with their transfer business this summer, with the only player coming through the door being 31-year-old defender Craig Dawson from Watford for £2m after the defender impressed on loan at the club last season. In terms of outgoings, centre-back Fabian Balbuena has been allowed to join Dynamo Moscow on a free transfer, while winger Felipe Anderson has been sold for just £2m to Lazio only three years after West Ham gave the Italian club a club-record £40m for the Brazilian. With Ukraine's Euros star Andriy Yarmolenko being strongly linked with a move away for a cut-price fee and veteran defender Winston Reid also expected to depart, it is very feasible that David Moyes will only have 16 outfield players to choose from for the first game of the season against Newcastle on August 15th. 

Combining this paper-thin squad with an arduous Europa League campaign lasting at least until December, and the reward which West Ham worked so hard to achieve last season starts to become more of a death-wish. As the Thursday-Sunday playing schedule kicks in and the flights to and from far-flung corners of Europe take their toll, any sort of injury crisis could prove terminal, and with the squad littered with injury-prone players, the most notable being Manuel Lanzini and Michail Antonio, the frightening lack of depth will likely do the most damage in the early months of the season as Moyes attempts to juggle two major competitions with a squad barely adequate for one.

The return of Jesse Lingard to Manchester United after his loan spell at the club last season will also expose the lack of goals in West Ham's front line. While the Hammers had already had an impressive first half of the season, it was the England international's 9 goals and 5 assists in 16 games from the start of February, including crucial goals against Spurs and Arsenal and a double against Leicester, that secured European qualification. With Man Utd sensibly opting to keep Lingard's goals for themselves this season, the burden placed on Antonio, the only recognised striker in the squad, and forwards Said Benrahma and Jarrod Bowen will be immense. Antonio has managed to register 10 goals in each of the last 2 seasons despite his very unreliable hamstrings and Bowen scored 8 and assisted 5 from the wing in 20/21, but the less-than-prolific Benrahma scored just once after arriving for £25m from Brentford in October. With Antonio missing 12 league games last season through injury and with the capacity for that number to be even bigger this campaign, if West Ham fail to bring in a back-up striker before the close of the window Moyes will be forced to play his wide forwards out of position, which is hardly a recipe for success.

Aside from Antonio and Lingard, West Ham's primary source for goals came from a very unexpected source in holding midfielder Tomas Soucek, who used every inch of his 6ft 3in frame to batter home 10 league goals in his first full season for the Hammers. In hurling himself through defences to score some of the more unorthodox goals of the season, the Czech quickly endeared himself to the fans as well as forming a very solid midfield partnership with other fan favourite Declan Rice. However, a repeat of Soucek's goalscoring is not likely from such a deep-lying position on the field, and while it is hard to imagine Declan Rice's performances dipping after a stellar Euros, the only player currently available to come in and relieve Rice of his duties in the same manner Jordan Henderson did for England this summer is the semi-retired Mark Noble, who while being a club legend at 34 lost any form of pace or attacking intent some seasons ago. Given the amount of football Rice has played for club and country in the past two years, a burn-out is to be expected.

Moyes worked tactical wonders with the defence last season to ensure the side stayed in the upper echelons of the table, switching between a back three and the standard back four with left-back Aaron Cresswell at times slotting in at centre-back and Angelo Ogbonna finally emerging as a stalwart of the defensive line after six years in East London. However, last season aside, the Italian has been far from reliable in claret-and-blue, and with only the youthfully unpredictable Issa Diop and the aging Craig Dawson for support, it could be a long season for the man that is affectionately referred to as 'The Ogfather' by the more imaginative corners of the London Stadium. In goal, Lukasz Fabianski showed last season that he is not at the level he once was with a number of high-profile mistakes directly leading to goals, while his understudies Darren Randolph and David Martin are Championship-level at best. As with the midfield and attacking options, Moyes will struggle to replicate last season's form with so few quality defenders at his disposal.

It is important to remember that nothing has gone wrong yet. West Ham may get lucky with injuries, be handed an easy Europa League draw that relieves some pressure for a time, or Gold and Sullivan may suddenly get the chequebook out and allow Moyes to make the signings that his performances last season undoubtedly deserve. But unfortunately for West Ham fans, each of those events occurring are improbable, and a slow start could easily set the trend for a season of despair. Any form of injury to key players like Antonio, Rice or Ogbonna would immediately expose the club's horrendous transfer policy in recent years, and while all eyes are currently on Europe, it is far from impossible that this time next year Hammers fans are preparing for a trip to Peterborough rather than Portugal.