2019 6 Nations Preview

“England picked a rookie coach to coach a team at the World Cup.” Eddie Jones’ rather harsh verdict on his predecessor Stuart Lancaster may have seem justified in the aftermath of England’s disastrous 2015 World Cup campaign, but as Japan 2019 draws ever closer, Jones is discovering that you don’t have to be a rookie to make rookie errors. After a scintillating start that included 2 Six Nations titles and a series whitewash in Australia, England suffered a dramatic fall from grace, embarking on their longest losing streak since 1906 and dropping down the world rankings. However, World Cup hopes are still alive after a promising autumn salvaged an otherwise abysmal 2018. Wales and Ireland will also be looking to build on successful November periods, while Scotland and France will be hoping to translate their fleeting brilliance into consistent results following a mixed tournament last year. Italy seem once again confined to the wooden spoon before a ball is even kicked, as even the Scots begin to pull away from them. Each team has their strengths and some have very obvious weaknesses, but who will be crowned 2019 6 Nations champions on March 16^th? If last year’s tournament is anything to go on, it should prove to be another exhilarating and unpredictable championship.

The Champions

Is this the best Ireland team ever? They certainly look like it, as Joe Schmidt’s men picked up 13 wins from a possible 14 in 2018, beginning the year with their 2^nd 6 Nations Grand Slam and ending it with a stellar victory over the All Blacks. Newly-crowned World Player of the Year Johnny Sexton is expected to once again run the show, but the fly-half’s superb kicking and all-round prowess would be impossible if it wasn’t for the ferocious pack in front of him, with CJ Stander, Peter O’Mahony and Sean O’Brien dominant at the breakdown. Injuries may prove to be costly as Sexton, Connor Murray and Robbie Henshaw face a race against time to recover for the first match against England, but Ireland have such an embarrassment of riches that they should be able to fend off any injury crisis. Jacob Stockdale should once again prove to be a potent weapon on the wing after his record 7 tries last year were ultimately crucial for the Irish. Although they are susceptible to falling behind if their opponent can match their ferocity in the early stages, the grass has seemingly never been greener as Schmidt will be hoping his final 6 Nations in charge can prove to be the launch pad to guide Ireland to World Cup glory.

Prediction: 1st – A consecutive Grand Slam looks likely

The Challengers

England seemed to have recovered from their catastrophic campaign last year, and they undeniably have the firepower to reclaim the 6 Nations title, but it will be interesting to see how Jones reacts to not being the overwhelming favourite for the first time in his tenure. The Australian has typically adopted a bullish persona with the media when referring to his opponents, exuding an arrogance that can just about be accepted if your team is backing up what you say on the pitch. But when the results disappear and are replaced with humbling defeats, Jones’ remarks only exacerbate the humiliation. The England coach no longer has the luxury to openly criticise Jonny Sexton now he is the best player in the world and capable of dismantling England, or to question Wales’ “bottle” when the once-inexperienced backline has now beaten South Africa and Australia, as well as pushing England mighty close last February.

Jones’ antics aside, the return of Billy Vunipola, as well as a host of others following an injury crisis bordering on the absurd, should add much-needed experience to the back row, although understudy Mark Wilson performed exceptionally well in place of the Saracens No 8. It will be interesting to see whether Jones returns to the Ford-Farrell axis after ditching it in the autumn, but Henry Slade’s emergence at outside centre makes this unlikely as to pick three natural fly-halves seems a tad excessive. An abundance of talent in the back line will see May, Nowell, Ashton, Cokanasiga, Daly and the returning veteran Mike Brown battle it out for 3, with Daly likely to secure the full-back role after adapting to the role well in the autumn. Jones then faces a difficult choice, as although Ashton has proved prolific on his return from the wilderness, the likes of May and Nowell seem more obvious and exciting options, while it may be a 6 Nations too soon for emerging Bath starlet Cokanasiga.

If Maro Itoje can stop giving away penalties and Owen Farrell starts to tackle with his arms again, England have more than a chance of reclaiming their crown as the best in Europe. One suspects Ireland will be too big a challenge, but Jones would like nothing more than to scupper their Grand Slam defence before it even started in the first round in Dublin.

Prediction: 2^nd – Defeat against Ireland will be followed up with 4 wins to finish an impressive 2^nd 

The Chasing Pack

2018 was the year when Wales definitively broke their southern hemisphere curse, with 5 wins over South Africa, Australia and Argentina respectively, as well as 3 wins out of 5 in the 6 Nations, making Warren Gatland a relatively happy man as he heads into his final year in charge of a team he has coached since 2007. However, despite a trio of 6 Nations titles and 2 Grand Slams, Wales have fallen short on the world stage and Gatland will be hoping a successful spring can propel the Welsh to their first ever World Cup final. Halfpenny, Moriarty and Faletau being out of action is a big blow for Gatland, but nowhere near the severity of their injury crisis this time last year. A positive of said injury crisis was the emergence of fly-half Rhys Patchell who stepped up to the plate despite being thrown in at the deep end. Gatland went with the older but still relatively inexperienced Gareth Anscombe for the Autumn Tests, as Dan Biggar was reduced to just 1 start in 2018 as a result of injury and lack of form. It would still not be surprising if Gatland reverts to type and reinstates Biggar considering the Northampton Saint was a mainstay in the side before being sidelined by a shoulder injury, but at least there is now sufficient cover. Their attacking options are as good as any, with George North’s combination of strength and pace, Liam Williams’ agility and Jonathan Davies’ versatility enough to frighten any defence. However, Gatland’s continued reliance on old heads such as Alun Wyn Jones may prove to be their downfall as although they bring experience to the side, Jones is not the player he used to be and could start to feel the strain as the tournament progresses. Overall, this is a very solid Wales outfit, but they lack that one world-class player that can transform a good team into a great one, and three away trips to France, Italy and Murrayfield will not help their cause.

Prediction: 4^th – Their tournament hinges on the opening match against France

France are so ridiculously unpredictable that to even attempt to suggest how they will do in this tournament is a complete shot in the dark. After a disappointing 6 Nations that included a surprise victory over the floundering England, Les Bleus got battered by New Zealand and narrowly lost to South Africa, then seemed to restore some confidence with a convincing win over Argentina, only to suffer a shock home loss to Fiji in the final game of 2018. The astonishing lack of consistency with France is by no means a new problem, but it seems to have taken on a whole new dimension as team selection sways erratically between old-timers and debutants. Jacques Brunel has settled on a mixture of the two for the opener against Wales. Morgan Parra, Yoann Huget, Louis Picamoles, Maxim Medard and Wesley Fofana are now all over 30 years of age, while scrum-half Romain Ntamack is set to make his debut at the age of 19. The talent packed into the 15 selected to play Wales raises the question as to why they cannot string together consecutive victories, but their unwavering ability to lose games by the narrowest of margins probably has something to do with it. Their attacking flair and dominant forward pack, including 24 stone wrecking ball Uini Atonio, mean that the French are always there or thereabouts heading into the final 20 minutes, but their soft core as a result of the inconsistent selection means that they have a tendency to throw it away at the last (see Johnny Sexton’s last-minute drop goal this time last year). Aside from the woeful summer tour in New Zealand, France’s biggest margin of defeat in their 5 other losses was 7 points, and that was against Fiji, with Scotland beating the French by 6 points, Ireland, just 2, and Wales by a single point. Guilhem Guirado, who has excelled in his role as captain, will be hoping he can rally his troops and turn those slender losses into wins, but with no clear direction heading into World Cup year France will be facing an uphill battle.

Prediction – 5^th – Aside from Italy, France will find the Home Nations too tough a test

After a fantastic 2017 that included a 53-24 thrashing of Australia, Scotland headed into the 2018 6 Nations surprisingly optimistic, only to be handed a thrashing of their own as Wales ran riot, scoring 34 points to Scotland’s 7. After a mixed autumn the aforementioned optimism has somewhat evaporated, although Glasgow and Edinburgh’s remarkable performances in Europe have raised expectations. Exeter-bound Stuart Hogg continues to solidify his reputation as one of the best full-backs in the world, while the half-back combination of Greig Laidlaw and Finn Russell have returned from their Top 14 adventure in France to unite once more. More concerning for head coach Gregor Townsend is the injuries to John Barclay and Hamish Watson, who have been crucial to Scotland’s dominance at the breakdown in recent years. In a one-off match, Scotland can beat the best team in the world, but across five matches they are bound to slip up at least once, although an early win against Italy could prove to be the spark that lights up their campaign.

Prediction – 3^rd – Constant progress will result in wins over Wales and France

The Wooden Spoon

The last time Italy won a 6 Nations match was in 2015, when a late penalty try was enough to vanquish Scotland. Since then, the Azzurri have gone through a barren spell of 15 defeats in a row in the competition. Just two wins in 2018 over Japan and Georgia did little to lift the mood, and no other team in the world is as dependent on one player as the Italians are on captain Sergio Parisse, who must be crying out for someone else to shoulder the burden. Injuries to Jake Polledri and electric full-back Matteo Minozzi are massive blows to a team lacking creativity, but at least Connor O’Shea seems to have found an Italian fly-half who can kick the ball, with Tommaso Allan racking up 41 points in last year’s championship, more than Owen Farrell and just 3 less than Johnny Sexton. Italy’s inability to play well in for more than 40 minutes unfortunately condemns them to another tournament of misery, with the home game against France on the final day looking like their only realistic opportunity.

Prediction – 6^th – Another winless tournament seems the only outcome