Vuelta a Espana 2017 - The Favourites

Vuelta a Espana 2017- The Favourites

The 72^nd edition of the Vuelta a Espana is under way, and already there have been signs of who is clearly out of their depth and who has a chance of walking away with overall glory. Here are the riders who fall into the latter category, and some who may upset the odds.

The Favourite – Chris Froome

The Sky leader has never been in such good form coming into the Vuelta. A 3-time runner-up (2011, 2014, 2016), Froome has already gained an advantage on all his rivals after the stage 1 team time trial and the opportunistic bonus seconds he picked up on stage 3, where he released an astonishing acceleration that decimated his rivals and put him in the red leader’s jersey. With a 42km time trial on stage 16 that is perfect for Froome and a disaster for nearly everyone else, even if the Kenyan-born Briton loses time in the mountains he will likely reclaim it here. However, the 4-time Tour de France champion has looked in total control even when the road goes up, and with a strong team around him it is hard to see how he can be beaten.

The Contender- Esteban Chaves

The diminutive Colombian is usually dwarfed by his rivals with the Orica-Scott rider just 5ft 5inches tall, but his success on the road for just 27 years of age more than makes up for it. Indeed, Chaves has been the one dwarfing his challengers in terms of results, rounding off a stellar 2016 by winning the hugely prestigious one-day race Giro di Lombardia, the first Colombian ever to do so. Chaves also podiumed in two Grand Tours (2^nd on the Giro D’Italia and 3^rd on the Vuelta), but his 2017 season has been blighted by a knee injury and personal tragedy. Strong showings in the early mountains of this race bodes well for Chaves, aiming to win the first Grand Tour of his career, and his climbing prowess would suggest he could. However, his inability to produce a half-decent time trial puts him at a massive disadvantage and makes his chance of winning a long shot.

The Outsider – Romain Bardet

For a man who has insisted he isn’t racing for the overall prize, Romain Bardet looked very much like he was going for the win on the first hilly stage on stage 3, being the 3^rd over the summit of the final climb and finishing in the lead group. The Frenchman is riding his first Grand Tour outside his home country, and after finishing on the podium of the Tour de France for two years in succession it is time he branches out. He has said on multiple occasions he is not purely focused on the general classification, but it is hard to see how someone of his calibre and ability would simply not race and let the others go up the road. This may well be a bluff in an attempt by his team, AG2R La Mondiale, to try and take the pressure of their national prodigy as Bardet steps into unknown territory. In this year’s Tour de France he seemed the best climber and dropped everyone, including Froome, to win Stage 12, which ended with a wickedly steep mountain-top sprint. If he can bring this sort of form to the Vuelta it is likely he will challenge Froome in the mountains, but, like Chaves, Bardet is abysmal at time trialling and lost nearly two minutes to Froome in the 22.5 km time trial at the Tour. The time trial at this year’s Vuelta is nearly double the length, so Bardet could lose three or even four minutes in just one stage. If this is to happen, four minutes is a lot of time to take back in the mountains, but Bardet is among a very small number of riders who could actually pull it off. Still, the odds are stacked heavily against him.

The Dark Horse – Tejay Van Garderen

Ever since his surprise 5^th place on the Tour de France in 2012, when he wrestled the leadership of Team BMC from Cadel Evans and won the Young Rider’s jersey in the process, Tejay Van Garderen has mysteriously disappeared from the front end of professional cycling. People barely noticed he was there on the 2013 Tour de France, and then signs of a renaissance were quickly cut short when the American abandoned the 2015 Tour with illness when he had been 3^rd overall, on course for a podium place. Now, in 2017, Van Garderen is 29 and time to fulfil his vast potential is fast running out. His very first Grand Tour stage win on the Giro D’Italia this year will have boosted his confidence, which has previously seemed to be lacking, but the BMC rider is still an unknown quantity when it comes to three-week stage races. There is a chance that Tejay could surprise us all and climb like the champion he was predicted to be, but it is equally if not more likely he will self-destruct on the first serious mountain stage and fall down the overall standings. His inconsistency makes him a liability and impossible to predict, but this could also play into his hands if he is not taken seriously and is allowed to gain time. Unlike most of his rivals, he can match Froome in the time trials, so if he can hold it together on the climbs, Van Garderen may finally deliver what was promised back in 2012.